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MBS Day Ahead: Range Trade Likely to Dominate Heading Into Holiday Weekend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowdown in German GDP, the weakest Chinese retail sales in 15 years, Italian budget drama, and a Federal Reserve that didn't seem to care about big stock losses in October. The Fed had released an announcement on the Wednesday before Veteran's Day weekend. That trading day saw 10yr yields hit 3.25% and they never went any higher after that. In fact, they mostly went lower--especially when the stock sell-off kicked into higher gear in December. All of the above made November and December the best 2-month stretch for rates in more than 2 years. When rates rally that aggressively, they usually take a break and move sideways before deciding if the...(read more)