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MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground on Shutdown Deal Hopes and Inflation Data

Posted To: MBS Commentary

At first glance, this morning's weakness was all about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most widely-followed inflation report. In order to make a case for CPI causing the weakness, we'd have to assert that a core year-over-year reading of 2.2% versus a forecast of 2.1% was significant, even as monthly headline inflation missed its forecast by the same amount. Whether or not you're following me here, I'll just put it simply: it strains credulity to assign the blame for today's weakness strictly to the inflation data. It just wasn't a big enough beat, and this hasn't been a report that's merited this sort of reaction in the past several months. Looking for other explanations quickly reveals 2 other suspects at the scene of the crime (the 8:35-8:35am timeframe...(read more)