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12/28/2021 Mortgage Rates Leveling Off At 3-Week Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates hit their highest level in 2 weeks heading into Christmas weekend. The average lender raised costs by a very small amount again on Monday, thus leaving them within striking distance of 3 week highs. Now today, there's been a slight recover as the bond market (which dictates mortgage rate movement) gave a clearer impression that it had leveled off for the time being. All of the above having been said, the most relevant consideration is the very small gap between 3 week highs and 3 week lows. In fact, rate changes have been limited to adjustments in closing costs for many weeks in some cases. That's lenders' way of making finer adjustments to the cost of borrower (due to the fact that markets rarely move enough to necessitate a change in the typical interest rate increment of 0...(read more)

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12/28/2021 MBS RECAP: Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rate movement in the coming days/weeks. But there are some times when probabilities are higher than normal for a certain baseline trend. In the case of late December, that baseline is for yields to hurry up and wait in a sideways pattern for more liquidity and more information on how omicron is playing out. Neither of those things will be in abundant supply for at least a week, so today's exceptionally flat performance is no surprise (or simply, less surprising than other potential outcomes). Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm Case Shiller Home Prices 18.4 vs 19.1 prev FHFA Home Prices 17.4 vs 17.7 prev Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Carbon copy of yesterday's...(read more)

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12/28/2021 Price Gains Slow; Will We See 7% Next Year?

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Home price gains slowed slightly in October with both S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reporting lower annual increases in October than in September. There was a slight uptick, however, in the monthly gain in FHFA's House Price Index (HPI). The Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, rose 19.1 percent on an annual basis in October. The annual gain in September was 19.7 percent. The 10 City Composite came in with a 17.1 percent increase, down from 17.9 percent and the 20-City Composite posted an 18.4 percent year-over-year gain compared to 19.1 percent the previous month. Phoenix had the highest annual appreciation, its 29 th consecutive month in first place, at 32.3 percent. Tampa, and Miami retained their...(read more)

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12/28/2021 MBS Morning: More Data, But Not Necessarily More Excitement

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now dropping into positive territory. Volume, liquidity, rhyme, and reason are all lacking, but we don't need any of that considering our current spot in the bigger picture trading range. Today brings a few more data points, both in terms of econ reports and the 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm (the day's biggest potential market mover). Even then, there's a high bar for any of this week's market movement to inform the bigger picture. This is due both to the slower trading typically seen in the last week of December as well as the waiting game surrounding the omicron variant (i.e. case counts are clearly surging in some places, but it remains...(read more)

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12/28/2021 Lumber Prices Likely to Remain Volatile

Posted To: MND NewsWire

With the overall inflation rate becoming a focus of concern, the attention paid to lumber prices over the spring and summer faded to background noise. A recent report on the subject by Erik Sherman in GlobeSt.com warns that those prices remain an issue, however. He writes "supply chain problems, labor issues, and geopolitical wrangling mean a continued uncertain and volatile future." The only promise lumber offers going into 2022, he says, is potentially high prices with a heaping dash of volatility. In late June we observed that lumber prices had been dropping from a peak of $1,670 per thousand board feet on May 7 to 897.90 and, at that point, the decline was picking up speed. At the time that Sherman was writing, his article was posted on December 22, lumber was above $1,000 per thousand...(read more)

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12/28/2021 Broker, ECOA, VA Cash Out Products; Disaster News; Thoughts on Yield Curve and IMBs

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Whether or not you think that climate change is real, you can’t deny that there is a climate, and that climate-related disasters occur… to the tune of $170 billion this year per one estimate . And given that state-specific foreclosure laws impact servicing values, and therefore rate sheet pricing, servicing values that vary based on the likelihood of natural disasters in a given areas aren’t a stretch. (More disaster news below.) Something else that that we don’t regularly think about is trucking, and how trucker comp impacts productivity. Thousands of trucks are stacked up, waiting for Highways 50 and 80 to open in the Sierra Nevada mountains, impacting supply chain issues even more. Nationwide, the current “shortage” of truck drivers is reportedly around...(read more)

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12/27/2021 MBS RECAP: Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon market movement. Treasuries traded for a few hours in Asia before going quiet for more than 4 hours overnight due to the London market closure. Domestic traders were slightly better buyers despite another run to record highs in stocks. 10yr yields hit the 3pm close down just over 1bp (1.482). MBS were sideways at modestly stronger levels as well. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm Market Movement Recap 09:05 AM Very flat overnight. Low volume with London closed. 10yr down .7bps at 1.486 and 2.5 UMBS unchanged at 102. 12:52 PM Uneventful trading with earlier strength leveling off now. 10yr down 1.2bps at 1.48 and MBS just a hair better than unchanged. 03:22 PM No changes...(read more)

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12/27/2021 MBS Morning: Winter Break Continues For Bond Market

Posted To: MBS Commentary

While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's not always the case on the week between Christmas and New Year's Day. Things are a bit different this year due to the pandemic. We're waiting for more tradeable info regarding omicron's impact on the economy. Once that picture becomes clearer, the assumption is that rates will make a more convincing move toward the summertime lows or the more recent highs. At the very least, we'd expect a challenge of one of the outer boundaries of the consolidation pattern seen in the chart below. Bonds close early on Friday, but there is no full-day closure as New Year's Day falls on a Saturday this year. MBS Pricing Snapshot Pricing...(read more)

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12/27/2021 Refi Share of Freddie's Volume Held Steady Last Month

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 12.0 percent in November compared to a 15.7 percent gain in October. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $3.211 trillion compared to $3.179 trillion the prior month and $2.734 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances plummeted to $94.635 billion from $109.333 billion the prior month and Sales were ($503) billion compared to ($855) billion. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $52.7 billion in November compared to $59.1 billion in October, representing a 60 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances, unchanged from October. Purchases in Freddie Mac's Mortgage Related Investments Portfolio totaled $58.028 billion...(read more)

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12/27/2021 Purchase Originations, eNote Tools; FHA, VA, Ginnie News; Inflation and Savings

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I hope that you’re not reading this while stuck due to the thousands of cancelled flights or road closures in Northern California! Kudos to Carol K. who sent, “One thing nobody ever talks about being an adult is how much time you debate yourself on keeping a cardboard box because it’s, like, a really, really good box.” Kudos is an interesting word. Do the governments/governors in California and Colorado deserve kudos for making these moves that impact residential lenders, providing money for distressed borrowers (in California) and creating more regulations for non-bank lenders (in Colorado). How about state funding for tracking down, arresting, and throwing away the key for people who steal the identity of others? Author Carol Gardner interviews 4iq’s Luke Wilson...(read more)

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12/23/2021 Strong New Home Sales a Moving Target Thanks to Revisions

Posted To: MND NewsWire

November was another one of those months for new home sales when the topline numbers look terrific. And then you take a second look. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on Thursday that new home sales surged 12.4 percent from October to November. However, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales was at the lower end of analysts' expectations at 744,000 and was 14.0 percent below the November 2020 estimate. The strong monthly gain arises from two straight months of significant downgrades to the prior period's estimate. September sales were reported at an annual rate of 800,000 only to be revised to 723,000. This month the 745,000 October estimate turned into 662,000 units. Analysts polled by both Econoday and Trading Economics had a consensus forecast...(read more)

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12/23/2021 Black Knight Says Delinquencies Have Fallen by 1.5M YoY

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While serious delinquencies remain a concern, homeowners are recovering quickly from pandemic induced mortgage delinquencies. Black Knight's "first look" at November loan performance found a further decline in the nation's delinquency rate to 3.59 percent. This is a 4.11 percent improvement from October and down 43.29 percent from the rate in November 2020. At the end of November there were 1.91 million homeowners who were 30 days or more past due on their mortgage loans but not in foreclosure, an improvement of 80,000 since the end of October. One year earlier 3.38 million loans were past due. The number of serious delinquencies, loans more than 90 days past due but not in foreclosure, also dropped by 80,000 in a month. While 1.03 million loans remain in serious delinquency, this is 1.17 million...(read more)

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12/23/2021 Mortgage Business to Remain Healthy Over Forecast Horizon

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is ending their business year, they will be closed until January 3, with their annual housing and economic forecasts for this and the next three years. They are predicting that the industry will end 2021 with a total of $3.93 trillion in mortgage originations, down slightly from the $4.1 trillion last year, an all-time record. Purchase mortgages will set a record at $1.61 trillion, $0.1 trillion higher than the previous record set in 2005. Purchase originations are expected to come in at $2.32 trillion, not a record, in fact significantly lower than the $2.63 trillion in 2020, but still the third highest total ever. Next year won't be nearly as good, as originations are expected to drop to $870 billion and the refinance share of originations from 57 percent...(read more)

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12/23/2021 Encompass, Rehab, CRM Products; Jumbo, Non-Agency, Non-QM Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

When I was a kid, we’d trade baseball cards between each other… at least the ones that weren’t in the spokes of our bikes. The creativity, technique, and outcome has changed, and thank you to Indiana transplant Carol K. for passing along this tale of how a woman started with a bobby pin and, adding value along the way, worked her way up to a free house ! Carol raises the issue, “Is it harder and more time consuming to make these trades or go out and get a mortgage?” While we’re on “adding value,” Axis Lending Academy is the first non-profit education platform designed to bridge the opportunity gap in our biz by acting on DE&I initiatives and providing access for driven & diverse learners to participate in our industry. “We provide...(read more)

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12/23/2021 Highest Mortgage Rates in 2 Weeks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates continued higher for the third straight day on Wednesday. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly 2 weeks. But that's the most dramatic way to represent the facts. While it's true that rates are at 2 week highs, they're not too far away from 2 week lows. In fact, many borrowers would be seeing the same "note rate" at the top of today's loan quotes as any other day in the past 2 weeks. Indeed, the same could be said for the past 2 months in many cases. If note rates are unchanged, why are we talking about "higher rates?" In short: upfront costs! Whether it's a positive or negative value, mortgages have an associated cost that allows for smaller adjustments than the typical 0.125% interest rate increments. For example, a 3.25% note rate with $1400 in lender...(read more)

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12/22/2021 MBS RECAP: Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger 10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par with the typical half day meaning today was the lowest volume full trading day of the year. Tomorrow will be even lower. Neither day was likely to be consequential. There was a smattering of econ data this morning but no reaction for bonds. The only action on the day consisted of slightly better buying at the CME open (after 8:20am ET) and slightly better selling after the NYSE open (9:30am ET). Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm GDP (q3, final) 2.3 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.1 prev Consumer Confidence 115.8 vs 110.8 f'cast, 111.9 prev Existing Home Sales 6.46 vs 6.52 f'cast, 6.34 prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Stronger at the start of the overnight session...(read more)

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12/22/2021 HELOC, Broker, POS/LOS Products; FEMA News... Private Flood Insurance for FHA Loans?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Yes, you should know that today is a date palindrome. Of course people in Ohio, and Florida, know that Key West is farther west than Cleveland . Utah is farther west than both, and sometimes, when everyone zigs, one person will zag, and with good reason (thanks to Ken S. for sending this very fun video for the romantically inclined). Regardless of where you live, no one wants to lose money. If annual inflation is running at 7 percent, and you’re earning, at most, 2 percent on your non-invested cash, or more likely 0 percent on your bank account, you’re burning 5-7 percent of your cash every year. How’s that feel? This isn’t rocket science. The 10-year yield hit its 2021 high of 1.77 percent several months ago. The 2-year hit its high a few weeks ago. The yield curve...(read more)

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12/22/2021 HELOC, Broker, POS/LOS Products; FEMA News... Private Flood Insurance for FHA Loans?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Yes, you should know that today is a date palindrome. Of course people in Ohio, and Florida, know that Key West is farther west than Cleveland . Utah is farther west than both, and sometimes, when everyone zigs, one person will zag, and with good reason (thanks to Ken S. for sending this very fun video for the romantically inclined). Regardless of where you live, no one wants to lose money. If annual inflation is running at 7 percent, and you’re earning, at most, 2 percent on your non-invested cash, or more likely 0 percent on your bank account, you’re burning 5-7 percent of your cash every year. How’s that feel? This isn’t rocket science. The 10-year yield hit its 2021 high of 1.77 percent several months ago. The 2-year hit its high a few weeks ago. The yield curve...(read more)

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12/22/2021 String of Existing Home Price Increases Now Longest on Record

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales came in a little lower than expected in November, but it was still the third consecutive gain. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million units, a 1.9 percent increase over the 6.340 million sales in October. This left sales 2.0 percent below the 6.59 million annualized transactions in November 2020. Single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million in November, up 1.6 percent from the prior month but 2.2 percent behind the rate a year earlier. Existing condominium and co-op sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 710,000 units, up 4.4 percent from 680,000 in October and...(read more)

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12/22/2021 String of Existing Home Price Increases Now Longest on Record

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales came in a little lower than expected in November, but it was still the third consecutive gain. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million units, a 1.9 percent increase over the 6.340 million sales in October. This left sales 2.0 percent below the 6.59 million annualized transactions in November 2020. Single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million in November, up 1.6 percent from the prior month but 2.2 percent behind the rate a year earlier. Existing condominium and co-op sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 710,000 units, up 4.4 percent from 680,000 in October and...(read more)

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