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7/13/2020 Mortgage Rates Have Moved Up From Last Week's Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates definitely hit the lowest all-time lows of all-time last week, at least for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios without many risk-based adjustments. The most recently available Freddie Mac rate survey (which drives a majority of mortgage rate headlines) reported all-time lows as of last Thursday. Indeed, that was still true as of Thursday, but things have changed since then. The change began on Friday for most lenders as the bond market (which drives day-to-day changes in interest rates) began to lose ground fairly quickly. Notably, the weakness followed the best-ever levels in mortgage-backed bonds (which most directly affect mortgage rates). In other words, we had access to the best rates ever on Friday morning , but the average lender has moved slightly higher since then. Context...(read more)

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7/13/2020 MBS RECAP: Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis (read more on that here). Once school is suggesting a potential bounce higher for rates while the other remains hopeful. This is a deceptively big week in terms of new information for both approaches. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:05 AM Bonds were almost perfectly flat in very light trading overnight. Treasuries are starting the day roughly unchanged from Friday's latest levels. MBS are down an eighth. Stocks are .7% higher (S&P futures). 12:02 PM Some resilience in bonds despite additional gains in equities. Yields remain well off Friday's lows, but have now returned to 'unchanged'...(read more)

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7/13/2020 Marketing, TPO Products; Wholesale Updates and Mudslinging

Posted To: Pipeline Press

While in captivity it is important to remember good grooming is important . Good communication is important also. Are salespeople all on the way to having two cell phones, and two phone numbers? If you haven’t heard of Gong, your boss probably has. Gong is a “revenue intelligence platform for B2B sales teams. It helps you close more deals by shining the light on your remote team's sales conversations . It records, transcribes, and analyzes all sales calls so you can drive sales effectiveness across your entire team .” Far be it from me to say it sounds like Nineteen Eighty-Four’s “fictional” character Big Brother. But some might, and won’t want a transcript of their every phone call circulated through the company. And while we’re on surveillance...(read more)

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7/13/2020 MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Fundamental Hope, But Technical Caution

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of things outside of the market that could/should have a bearing on the market (i.e. economic data, covid numbers, Fed policy, Fiscal policy). Technical analysis relies on market movement itself and attempts to draw conclusions about the present and future without considering fundamentals. Sometimes fundamentals and technicals are well-aligned . That alignment can be seen in the very shortest of terms such as strong economic data hitting on a day where bonds were already 'overbought' and at risk of a bounce. Or it can be seen in the bigger picture such as early June when covid numbers began ramping up just as bonds were decisively 'oversold...(read more)

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7/10/2020 Mortgage Market Ridiculously Good or Just Ridiculous?

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the housing and mortgage markets, one of the first major manifestations of the crisis was a quick move to incredibly low rates. With record after record being set in close succession, the mortgage environment has been ridiculously good for most homeowners. For others, it's just been ridiculous. Record low rates make a lot of sense given the economic outlook. In general, economic weakness coincides with lower rates, and there's been plenty of that to go around. On the other hand , much of the economic weakness is assumed to be temporary . How much is anyone's guess, but until we see where those chips fall, both sides of the market (stocks and bonds)...(read more)

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7/10/2020 MBS RECAP: Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary) Just as bonds were settling into a nice new trend toward lower yields, today comes along with the biggest intraday reversal in weeks. But even if the weakness was twice as big, bonds would still be in a great place and we still wouldn't be seeing a major cause for concern. That will change some day, but it didn't change today. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Core Annual Wholesale Inflation (PPI) 0.1 vs 0.4 f'cast , 0.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Stocks and bond yields both slumped overnight. Once again, bonds continued to improve even as stocks bounced. 10yr yields down 3+ bps at .582 (range floor), and UMBS 2.0 opening up 3 ticks (.09) at 103-03 (103.09). 12:09 PM MBS remaining...(read more)

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7/10/2020 Biggest Drop yet in Forbearances Brings us Back to April's Levels

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Black Knight's weekly report on the numbers of mortgage loans in COVID-19 forbearance plans shows that a decline in those numbers of nearly a half million last week. More than 435,000 homeowners exited the plans, the largest drop yet. As of July 7, 4.14 million homeowners were in the plans which allow them to skip or reduce their mortgage payments if they are suffering financial problems due to the pandemic. This represents 7.8 percent of mortgage lenders and just under $900 billion in unpaid principal. This is the smallest number of plans since April 28. Some 6.0 percent of all GSE-backed loans, 1,678,000 in number, and 11.6 percent of all FHA/VA loans (1,399,000) are currently in forbearance plans. Another 1,067,000 or 8.2 percent of loans in private label securities or banks' portfolios...(read more)

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7/10/2020 Ops, LO, AE Jobs; Servicing, Lead, Marketing Products; Conventional Conforming Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Bubonic plague in China ? What’s next, frogs falling from the sky? Water turning into blood, darkness for three days? A big bank requiring $1 million in your account for some retail jumbo refis? Oh wait... that happened . (That’s one way to manage capacity.) Ivy League football has been yanked, and hurricane season is approaching in the Southeast with the periodic rushes to buy plywood and drinking water. We already have our hands full with temporary lay-offs and cutbacks turning into permanent job losses, something that the Federal Reserve has been trying to avoid. For good news, lenders are focused on “tappable” home equity topping $6.5 trillion, which is a record per Black Knight. One official noted that with mortgage interest rates hitting record lows, 90 percent...(read more)

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7/10/2020 MBS Day Ahead: Bonds' Already Hitting The Floor of The New Trend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted security. When parallel lines can be drawn that connect more than a few highs and lows, you have a trend channel! It's even acceptable for the security to break outside the lines here and there if they are still capturing a majority of the bounces. The goal of a trend channel is right in the name: we're trying to capture a general trend that speaks to the pace of improvement or deterioration in any given security. When it came to bonds, 10yr Treasury yields were in a clear trend channel pointing toward gently higher yields for several months recently. They faked a breakout in early June only to return to the previous range and ultimately...(read more)

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7/9/2020 Mortgage Rates Defy Odds, Improving Yet Again From Record Levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, and those who rely on the actual daily average rate compiled by Mortgage News Daily. In both cases , the headlines can claim new record low rates, but each source is referring to a different instance of all-time lows. for the average lender. Specifically the all-time lows I told you about on Monday are the same all-time lows Freddie Mac is talking about today (Freddie's survey only covers the first part of any given week and tends to heavily favor Mondays). And the all-time lows I'm talking about today are those that have yet to be captured by Freddie's survey. Indeed, they may not be captured at all if rates happen to move up by the beginning...(read more)

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7/9/2020 Mortgage Rates Defy Odds, Improving Yet Again From Record Levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, and those who rely on the actual daily average rate compiled by Mortgage News Daily. In both cases , the headlines can claim new record low rates, but each source is referring to a different instance of all-time lows. for the average lender. Specifically the all-time lows I told you about on Monday are the same all-time lows Freddie Mac is talking about today (Freddie's survey only covers the first part of any given week and tends to heavily favor Mondays). And the all-time lows I'm talking about today are those that have yet to be captured by Freddie's survey. Indeed, they may not be captured at all if rates happen to move up by the beginning...(read more)

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7/9/2020 Sure, Rates Are Low, But It's Getting Harder to Get a Loan

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Credit tightening is becoming more evident according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Its Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell to a reading of 125.0 in June, a loss of 3.3 percent . A decline in the index indicates stricter lending standards. Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting explained. "Mortgage credit supply dropped again in June, as investors further reduced their willingness to purchase jumbo loans and those with lower credit scores. Lenders are navigating a gradual economic and housing market recovery that is still facing headwinds from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The overall credit availability index decreased 3.3 percent to its lowest level since April 2014 , with all of the sub-indexes falling to lows not seen since 2014-2015...(read more)

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7/9/2020 MBS RECAP: Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April. It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways. But now they may be making a case for a new trend toward lower rates. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Jobless Claims 1.314m vs 1.375m f'cast, 1.427 prev Continued Claims 18.062m vs 18.95m f'cast, 19,290m prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Once again, stocks and bonds made a modest move to start the overnight session and were then extremely flat since then. MBS starting out up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are down 1.3bps at .653 11:00 AM Bonds are rallying nicely now as the stock market swan dives. 10yr yields down more than 4bps to .62%+ and UMBS 2.0 up an eight, quickly...(read more)

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7/9/2020 Realtors Report that their Customers are Back

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A new survey by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has found that the vast majority of its members feel as though their businesses are back on track. NAR says, "After enduring months of setbacks brought on by the coronavirus pandemic... more than nine in 10 members believe they are in the process of recovering as many states start to reopen their economies. " Ninety-two percent of the residential and commercial Realtors who responded to the 2020 Market Recovery Survey said that at least a portion of their buyers are back and of those, 18 percent said they never left. Nine percent said all of their buyers had returned with agents in small towns and rural areas more likely to report either no interruption in activity or a more robust return of buyers to the market. "The residential...(read more)

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7/9/2020 MBS Day Ahead: Are Mortgage Rates Done Closing The Gap To MBS?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yield isn't something we've historically focused on largely because it's not important to follow for the purposes of our core audience. But apart from something like 10yr Treasury yields, it provides the least complex comparison between bond market movement and mortgage rates. While the comparison may be relatively simple, the thing itself is less so. If we're talking about the "current coupon" yield (which we need to be in order to examine longer-term relationships between MBS and rates), and given the lack of a liquid discount MBS coupon (i.e. nothing is actually trading under a price of 100.00, which is something...(read more)

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7/9/2020 LO Jobs; Marketing Products; Compliance News: Is a "like" a "thing of value"?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

United Airlines may lay off 36,000? Bed, Bath, and Beyond closing 200 stores? Walgreen’s cutting 4,000? Yup. Lower rates won’t save those jobs, but we’ll have low rates for a long time. Things are different for residential lenders. When we began 2020, who thought things would be where they are now in our biz to the point of me receiving this note from the CEO of a well-known retail lender: “We’re seeing crazy volumes and profits. Controlling overhead and making money is not our problem. My LOs have been working twelve hours a day, seven days a week, as have processors and many of my Ops staff. Burnout is the problem. The days of aggregators pricing servicing at zero are gone, although few want low credit score product, spec pool bids have come roaring back, fears...(read more)

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7/8/2020 Fairly Innocent Wake-Up Call For Mortgage Rate Watchers

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen during the previous 3 business days. Even so, today's underlying market movement might be a bit of a wake-up call for anyone waiting to lock an interest rate. In general, the decision to lock or float a mortgage rate has had low consequences recently. While that will likely continue to be the case until the coronavirus situation meaningfully improves, it doesn't mean we should fall asleep at the wheel. We need to remain vigilant for signs that the most recent all-time low mortgage rates are the last we'll see for months or years. Today served as a fairly non-threatening wake-up call in that regard--at least for those following the intraday movement...(read more)

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7/8/2020 Fairly Innocent Wake-Up Call For Mortgage Rate Watchers

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen during the previous 3 business days. Even so, today's underlying market movement might be a bit of a wake-up call for anyone waiting to lock an interest rate. In general, the decision to lock or float a mortgage rate has had low consequences recently. While that will likely continue to be the case until the coronavirus situation meaningfully improves, it doesn't mean we should fall asleep at the wheel. We need to remain vigilant for signs that the most recent all-time low mortgage rates are the last we'll see for months or years. Today served as a fairly non-threatening wake-up call in that regard--at least for those following the intraday movement...(read more)

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7/8/2020 MBS RECAP: Closer Look at Stocks vs Rates

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain smack dab in the center of their recent range. We've officially begun the waiting game. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:06 AM Bond yields and stock prices were inconsequentially higher overnight and remained very flat throughout Asian and European sessions. MBS starting the day 2 ticks (.06) weaker. 10yr yields up 1.3bps at .653. 10:15 AM Weakness accelerated into the 10am hour, roughly following a stock surge. Bonds seem to be finding support for now though. 10yr yields up 2.3bps at .663 and UMBS 2.0 down an eighth on the day. 01:12 PM Solid defensive stand continues for the bond market after strong 10yr auction. MBS at highs...(read more)

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7/8/2020 MBS RECAP: Closer Look at Stocks vs Rates

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain smack dab in the center of their recent range. We've officially begun the waiting game. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:06 AM Bond yields and stock prices were inconsequentially higher overnight and remained very flat throughout Asian and European sessions. MBS starting the day 2 ticks (.06) weaker. 10yr yields up 1.3bps at .653. 10:15 AM Weakness accelerated into the 10am hour, roughly following a stock surge. Bonds seem to be finding support for now though. 10yr yields up 2.3bps at .663 and UMBS 2.0 down an eighth on the day. 01:12 PM Solid defensive stand continues for the bond market after strong 10yr auction. MBS at highs...(read more)

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