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MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data as Rates Try to Find Next Ceiling

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019? Or are such things on hold for another year or two? Inquiring traders want to know. They'd been trading as if a contraction was a more imminent threat from November 2018 through late March 2019, but have been having second thoughts since then. Beyond the domestic economy, we have to keep an eye on Europe and China at the moment. Apart from simply being a good policy in general (it's a global economy, after all), paying attention to EU/China makes sense considering the Fed has explicitly said it's doing the same. Point being that any noticeable bounce in economic data in those two regions could lead the Fed to err on the side of less friendly monetary policy. We'll have to wait until next Wednesday...(read more)